Netflix executives used to assume that if a series achieved considerable or moderate success with the release of a season, the next one was bound to work out. There was an almost blind confidence in their streaming model and in their customers’ viewing habits: they make an entire season (or at least half of it) available in the catalog, and subscribers, out of habit, start watching the episodes one after another.
However, this strategy has been failing spectacularly in recent months with the release of some long-running shows that, in theory, should have performed well in the catalog. Just look, for example, at the return of Sweet Magnolias last week. This low-budget drama—a staple in Netflix’s catalog with five seasons produced—saw a 30% drop in its audience during its premiere week: from 4 million views to 2.8 million.
This figure could be interpreted as a failure or a worrying decline were it not for the fact that recent months have seen even more drastic drops, especially among series returning for their second season. Traditionally, the second season was a time for consolidation, not a loss of viewership. A new show, the sports comedy starring Kate Hudson, dropped 43% in its return week, and when you look at the second week’s viewership, the failure is undeniable: from 21.5 million views to 12 million.
In the comedy genre, in fact, Netflix is facing one disappointment after another. Undercover Man, the series for which Ted Danson was nominated for a Golden Globe, an Actor Award, and a Critics’ Choice Award, didn’t even make it onto the list of the most-watched English-language shows with the return of its second season. Therefore, it’s impossible to compare the data from the premiere week of the first and second seasons. All we know is that viewership dropped by more than 66%.
And what about The Four Seasons, which we actually defended just this week? Its viewership plummeted by 63% upon its return. When you add in the second week’s numbers, there’s no sugarcoating this setback. From 24.4 million viewers to 10.1 million. For a segment of viewers who were familiar with the group of friends—including Tina Fey and Colman Domingo, who recently wrapped up Euphoria and is in theaters this week with Steven Spielberg’s latest film—there was zero desire to reconnect with the show.
For Beef, Lee Sung Jin’s anthology series, it didn’t help at all that it swept the Emmys, Golden Globes, and guild awards with its first season, or that it had convinced actors like Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan to join the cast for the second. Upon returning with new episodes, 58% of the audience had fallen by the wayside. Still, that was a better figure than Murder for Beginners.
The mystery series, which features Emma Myers (Wednesday)—a familiar face to young and family audiences—saw a 76% drop in viewership during its launch week. And Berlin lost 49.9% of its viewership following the theft of Leonardo da Vinci’s Lady with an Ermine when comparing data from the first three weeks: from 42.3 million views—a phenomenal audience—to 21.2 million (which is still a very good figure for non-English-language content).
The most intriguing aspect of this is that Netflix is acknowledging a shift in viewer behavior and, rather than burying these shows with an abrupt and automatic cancellation, is granting surprising renewals: The Four Seasons, A New Move, An Undercover Man, and Murder for Beginners have all been renewed for a third season after experiencing what would previously have been unquestionable failures. In the case of Emma Myers’ series, the third season will serve as the series finale.
This accumulation of disappointments with titles that had premiered to strong viewership figures signals a shift in behavior among Netflix subscribers. The momentum is fading: audiences no longer automatically return to shows they’ve watched before. What remains unclear, given these renewals, is what theories Netflix executives are considering.
Does producing shows that are simply easy to watch fail to generate the kind of commitment required for long-running series? Has Netflix’s focus on new releases led audiences to now overlook long-running series? Or is the oversaturation of content from Netflix and rival streaming services creating a more selective audience, especially after they’ve sampled an initial season?
